Lo que conviene tener presente hoy
Five readings of the Colombian electorate from Atlas-Intel microdata, May 2026, published on the day of the first round. On what the poll says, and on what it does not reach.
Things I've made.
Five readings of the Colombian electorate from Atlas-Intel microdata, May 2026, published on the day of the first round. On what the poll says, and on what it does not reach.
The polling places where Petrismo concentrated its vote in 2018 and 2022 have a territorial correlation of 0.95. Over practically the same polling places, between the first and second rounds of 2022 it added 453,329 votes in Bogotá and 2,753,245 nationally, 32.3% more than in the first round.
Government approval as the variable that orders the contest. Among those who disapprove, 92% back one candidate in the runoff; among those who approve, 94% back the other. What holds the larger group together is a shared rejection rather than a common ideology.
Three branches of mathematics applied to the 2026 World Cup group stage: a random walk over the passing network, linear algebra to group playing styles, and simulation to estimate the table. 110,627 actions from 72 matches.
The compute stack that artificial intelligence is built on, in six layers, from physical hardware to the economics of a token.
Match report on Colombia 1-0 Ghana. Progressions, field tilt, PPDA, line height and passing-network metrics, derived from event data.
Match report on Colombia 0-0 Portugal, group stage. Twenty-four shots to thirteen and no goals, against one of the favourites for the title.
Public repositories.