I'm Lucas, a mathematics and economics undergraduate student in Bogotá, Colombia. I do quantitative research on political, economic and social behaviour.
I work with probabilistic and Bayesian modelling, machine learning and network analysis. I have several years of professional experience, first as a data analyst and then a researcher, in the private sector and in academia. I currently work at Merci, a collective litigation firm in Bogotá, with electoral and sports analysis published under Gandour Consultores.
I assist on courses in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, and I am writing an applied linear algebra textbook with Professor Rafael Méndez. I enjoy teaching and doing research, and plan to pursue a PhD within the next few years.
Working papers
Work in progress
Deciphering the Long-Run Relationship Between Sustainability and Logistics Investment: The Case of Latin American Economies
in progressÁlgebra lineal para la vida
manuscript completeSelected work
Lo que conviene tener presente hoy
Five readings of the Colombian electorate from Atlas-Intel microdata, May 2026, published on the day of the first round. On what the poll says, and on what it does not reach.
Movilización en segunda vuelta
The polling places where Petrismo concentrated its vote in 2018 and 2022 have a territorial correlation of 0.95. Over practically the same polling places, between the first and second rounds of 2022 it added 453,329 votes in Bogotá and 2,753,245 nationally, 32.3% more than in the first round.
Crónica de un resultado anunciado
Government approval as the variable that orders the contest. Among those who disapprove, 92% back one candidate in the runoff; among those who approve, 94% back the other. What holds the larger group together is a shared rejection rather than a common ideology.
El Mundial que ven las matemáticas
Three branches of mathematics applied to the 2026 World Cup group stage: a random walk over the passing network, linear algebra to group playing styles, and simulation to estimate the table. 110,627 actions from 72 matches.
Now
Young Researcher Jun 2026 – present Universidad del Rosario. Adaptive learning platform for public education, with Professor Rafael Méndez.
Researcher Dec 2025 – present Merci People's Law Firm. Quantitative research and statistical analysis supporting strategy design. The electoral and sports analysis is published under Gandour Consultores, part of the same firm.
Teaching Assistant Jun 2025 – present Universidad del Rosario, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. Linear Algebra, Real Analysis, Calculus 3, Data Structures and Algorithms.