Research
Papers, work under way, and questions that do not yet have the shape of a project.
Working papers
1 Decision Efficiency in Football Passing: A Stable Player Metric from Probabilistic Option Sets
in review with Pedro Wightman, José Alejandro Guerrero
Reconstructs the option set available to the passer at the moment of release and scores the choice actually made against that set. Two player-stable metrics follow: opportunity-adjusted risk-taking and decision efficiency. Over 53,406 passes from the 2022 World Cup using StatsBomb 360 data, high-risk passes are associated with roughly 1.7 times the expected goals of low-risk passes in attacking situations.
Work in progress
2 Deciphering the Long-Run Relationship Between Sustainability and Logistics Investment: The Case of Latin American Economies
in progress with Alexander Garrido
Estimates the relationship between logistics capacity and development across Latin American economies with a pooled mean group estimator, which separates the long-run equilibrium from the short-run adjustment specific to each country.
Álgebra lineal para la vida
manuscript complete with Rafael Méndez
An applied linear algebra textbook for introductory courses, written in Spanish. Four chapters run from combinations of columns to the singular value decomposition, passing through the four fundamental subspaces, least squares and regression, difference and differential equations, and Markov chains. Each closes with exercises and their solutions, and with a workshop in Python on real data.
Open questions
5 Political attitudes at fine scale in Bogotá
Small-area estimation by poststratification, combining individual responses from the DANE Political Culture Survey with census sociodemographic composition.
What determines the vote at polling-place scale
The polling places where a candidacy concentrates its vote repeat across elections with correlations close to 1. How much of that is the composition of the territory, and how much is something else, remains to be established.
Synthetic respondents for Colombian populations
Language-model surrogates have been studied almost entirely on United States populations and in English. What such a claim is validated against remains open.
Reading the public procurement corpus in full
The Williamson alignment test has been complete since 1985 and was never applied at scale because applying it means reading, contract by contract. What changed is the price of reading.
Territorial concordance between DANE and Registraduría
Municipal codes differ between the two institutions and change over time. Without a maintained concordance no long electoral panel can be assembled.